Reflections on Craigslist, Twitter, and Facebook

I co-teach a class on entrepreneurship at University of Washington. Yesterday's class was on social marketing. I'll make the following anecdotal observations:

• Craigslist still rules in my opinion -- hands down it's the most impressive company next to google online. 30 employees and over 100MM in revenue from approx 5 cities.
• Twitter -- has the most potential to change the web.  BUT -- many people don't get it, don't use it, try it and stop. What makes Twitter interesting is despite these things -- it's moved the web into real time and has the potential to really change marketing online.
• Facebook -- 5 years in and they still don't really have a business model. They spend 150MM per year and are just reaching cash flow break even. I think they're secret sauce should be in the virtual goods area and not in advertising.

Comments

[Ben Straley]

Interesting thoughts Andy. Couldn't agree more about Craigslist. I love the fact that such a simple service remains an entrenched, vital part of the Web and is disrupting the local advertising and newspaper industries all by itself. Home run.

What my eye is drawn to these days is Twitter's basically flat traffic. While Facebook's user adoption and traffic continue to grow, Twitter's has leveled off since mid-July. Check out this comparison from Quantcast:

http://www.quantcast.com/twitter.com

If you discount the HUGE lift Twitter received from the Oprah, Kutcher, and CNN plugs it received in the Spring, it isn't obvious that Twitter's disruptive position is sustainable going forward. Using a sample consisting of my immediate family, friends, and colleagues, everyone (including my parents and in laws) uses Facebook regularly while fewer than 5 of these same people have even tried Twitter let alone use it regularly. That's pretty consistent with what Comscore and others have seen when analyzing usage patterns of the service. It doesn't seem to stick the same way Craigslist and Facebook do. I'm not ready to short Twitter yet but I'm certainly not going long.

[twitter.com/bonder]

Good point about Facebook, Andy - virtual goods will be their salvation if they work it right! Make it easier for every single social game developer to plug into their marketplace and take a small cut.

Facebook can also negotiate huge discounts from the mobile carriers to make services like Zong super-competitive.